2019 NASCAR at Darlington odds, picks: Model says Erik Jones surprises at Bojangles’ Southern 500

The 2019 NASCAR season is down to its final two races of the regular season with the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs starting on Sept. 15 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This weekend, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will head to Darlington Raceway for the 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500. The green flag drops at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday and with 14 of the 16 spots in the playoffs looking cemented, dozens of drivers will be battling for the final two spots. Kyle Larson is the 5-1 favorite in the latest 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 odds with six other drivers just behind him at 6-1. But plenty of focus will be on the four drivers who are squarely on the bubble. Ryan Newman (100-1) and Daniel Suarez (60-1) would be in if the playoffs started today, but Clint Bowyer (40-1) and Jimmie Johnson (40-1) are very much in the conversation. Meanwhile, a win for anybody who doesn’t already have one gets them in at this point so long as they meet start qualifications. So before you make your NASCAR at Darlington predictions, be sure to check out the 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track history and recent results into account.

The model is off to an extremely strong start in NASCAR this year. It correctly predicted Martin Truex Jr.’s victory at the Toyota/Save Mart 350. It also called Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin a top-four contender from the start. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers at the Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its projected top five, and then hit nine of the top 10 drivers last week at the Go Bowling at The Glen. Additionally, it had Coca-Cola 600 winner Martin Truex Jr. in its top two and then nailed Kyle Busch’s huge win in the first race at Pocono.

It also made some huge calls last year, including correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch at Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. It also nailed three of the top four finishers at Michigan and two of the top four at the Daytona 500. Anybody who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, who has a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events at venues like Darlington Raceway are in his blood. Now, his model simulated NASCAR at Darlington 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For NASCAR at Darlington, we can tell you the model is high on Erik Jones, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot at 16-1 odds. The 23-year-old is in 14th place but he’s in a pretty comfortable position in terms of points to ensure that he’ll make the 2019 NASCAR Playoffs and he’s been running well in the second half of the season. Jones has nine top-10 finishes in his last 14 starts after posting just three in his first 10. He’s also finished fifth and eighth in his two previous starts at Darlington, making him a really strong value on Sunday.

And a massive shocker: Kyle Larson, the Vegas favorite at 5-1, fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in a loaded lineup.

Larson still hasn’t posted a win yet this season, but he is in 11th place in the standings and he’s working on a string of four consecutive top-10 finishes. He’s also run well at Darlington historically, with four top-10 finishes in five starts there. That all being said, he’s also failed to get the job done at Darlington, finishing third last year despite leading 284 laps and 14th two years ago despite leading 124 laps. After winning four times in 2017, Larson has now gone 70 races without reaching the winner’s circle.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with NASCAR at Darlington odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big.

So who wins the 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks this season

Kyle Larson 5-1
Denny Hamlin 6-1
Kevin Harvick 6-1
Brad Keselowski 6-1
Kyle Busch 6-1
Joey Logano 6-1
Martin Truex Jr. 6-1
Chase Elliott 14-1
Erik Jones 16-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Ryan Blaney 30-1
Clint Bowyer 40-1
Alex Bowman 40-1
Jimmie Johnson 40-1
Aric Almirola 60-1
William Byron 60-1
Daniel Suarez 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 80-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Austin Dillon 100-1

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